Reurbanization and Sustainable Growth in Cities

Scenario Planning Informs Urban Development in Calgary

Mar 30, 2009

Scenario planning offers urban planners a valuable tool for understanding the implications of different approaches to accommodating urban growth.

North American cities are beginning to recognize they must develop more sustainably in the future. In Calgary, Alberta the City launched a municipal development and planning review called Plan It Calgary with City Council’s adoption of smart growth principles in January 2007.

Smart growth principles endorse more sustainable urban development such as promoting mixed land use, supporting more compact development and providing transportation options beyond the automobile.

The principles represent a departure from usual practice in Calgary, a city well known for its suburban sprawl. The Plan It design and implementation team was tasked with demonstrating how the city would grow differently if new housing and commercial development was located within the existing boundaries of the city.

The project manager of Plan It Calgary, Patricia Gordon, has compared the planning exercise to a complex jig saw puzzle with millions of pieces. Unfortunately, this box did not come with a picture on the front to assist planners with assembling the puzzle.

Planning Tools to Support Sustainable Development

With dozens of variables to consider in planning for a doubling of the city’s population over the next 50 to 60 years, Plan It Calgary needed a sophisticated planning tool to assist with understanding the effects of different factors. Scenario planning allowed planners to deal with this complexity.

A scenario is one possible future outcome of how a city will grow in the future; it is not a forecast. In the first phase of the Plan It Calgary project, three possible scenarios were examined. Each scenario contained different land use patterns and transportation networks. Once developed, citizens were asked to comment on the scenarios.

Over 20 indicators were developed for consideration. These included proximity to public transportation networks, transportation choices, housing mix and location, implications for residential greenhouse gas emissions, and land consumption.

Three Scenarios for Urban Development

The dispersed scenario reflects current trends and city policy. By accepting that most new housing development will occur on the edges of the city, it results in more travel by automobile and greater distances between home and work. It makes for fewer transportation choices, with infrastructure investment focused on roads for use by private automobiles. Greenhouse gas emissions would continue to rise, as would land consumption.

The compact scenario assumes no additional land for urban expansion; all growth would occur within the city’s existing boundaries. Redevelopment would occur initially in older commercial and residential areas, with rezoning and improved transportation networks facilitating this development.

The net result of a compact scenario is substantially reduced greenhouse gas emissions, shorter travel times between home and office, more housing choices, and greater reliance on sustainable forms of transit: cycling, walking and public transit networks.

The third scenario incorporated elements of the first two. It is called the hybrid scenario. It is closest to the compact scenario, accommodating 62 percent of new population within the existing urban fabric; some growth will still be allocated to the fringes of the city. The hybrid model will introduce road networks better suited to cycling, walking and public transit.

The Plan It Calgary team then commissioned several empirical studies to further refine the targets. Following this research and extensive public engagement, the draft municipal development and transportation plan has ‘landed’ between the hybrid and dispersed scenarios – where planners hope the optimal social, economic and environmental outcomes can be achieved. Once approved, these plans will set policy direction and design guidelines for a more sustainable future for the city.

The copyright of the article Reurbanization and Sustainable Growth in Cities in Architecture is owned by Andree Iffrig. Permission to republish Reurbanization and Sustainable Growth in Cities in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.